Risk Control Shield | Cross-border merchants are rushing to boost sales at the end of the year; first, check the store’s “rejection rate”.

As another year draws to a close, are your sales figures on your inbox making your heart race? Every cross-border seller is pulling out all the stops, ready to make a final push and bring the year to a perfect close. Orders are pouring in, cash flow is rolling in, and everything seems so wonderful.

However, please pause for a moment: what are those who are chasing with all their might, a sure-fire profit or a string of numbers that may “disappear” at any time?

Wintranx has noticed a dangerous pattern: in the fourth quarter of each year, especially in the last month, the “refund rate” (which is what we often call the fraud transaction rate and customer chargeback disputes and order cancellation rate) of cross-border e-commerce reaches its peak for the year, averaging 40%-65% higher than usual.

This is no coincidence—this is the golden window when sellers are most on edge and most likely to let their guard down in pursuit of “closing a deal”.

Beware! Three Hidden Scams at the End of the Year

Unlike the large-scale “shopping spree” fraud during shopping festivals, year-end fraud methods are often more sophisticated and covert, specifically tailored to sellers’ psychology of rushing to achieve sales targets.

1. “Boiling Frog in Slow Water” Style Small-Amount Fraud

Fraudsters won’t spend a fortune all at once, as that would be too easy for risk control systems to detect.

They would become more like “model customers,” using stolen credit cards to make dozens of small, seemingly normal purchases at different stores over days or even weeks. Each purchase was as low as $20-$50, which appeared perfectly reasonable. Sellers were often delighted to see a steady stream of orders.

However, once cardholders discover the irregularities and file a claim, all these transactions can become chargebacks overnight. Accumulated losses for a single store can reach thousands of dollars, without the seller receiving any warning.

2. Return traps under “normal orders”

The end of the year is also the most active time for “professional return specialists”.

They are well-versed in the platform’s rules and place an order that appears flawless: high-value goods, clear shipping address, and smooth payment. Upon receiving the goods, they initiate returns citing subjective reasons such as “minor product defects” or “not as described.” What is returned, however, may be used goods, counterfeit products, or even empty boxes.

Due to year-end logistics congestion and high pressure on warehouses, sellers often find it difficult to detect product swapping immediately. The end result is often losing both money and goods, while also incurring a high return rate metric , negatively impacting the store’s rating.

3. Collusive fraud by “cross-border fake purchasing agents”

This is a more complex situation.

Scammers will masquerade as “personal shoppers” or “small B buyers,” building trust with you for a period of time and even completing a few genuine transactions. At the end of the year, they suddenly place a “large order,” claiming to be helping overseas clients with centralized procurement, and using a combination of payment methods (partially using stolen credit cards, and partly making genuine payments).

Once high-value goods are shipped to overseas transit warehouses, chargebacks for the fraudulently claimed portion follow immediately. However, the goods have already been moved and are impossible to trace. Sellers not only lose payment but also face serious threats to their account security due to involvement in a cross-border fraud chain.

Must-check: “Store Return Refusal Rate Health Check Report”

Before pushing for sales, please take half an hour to conduct a quick “health check” on your store:

• Core Temperature (Key Ratio): Immediately review the chargeback rate for the past 30 days. If either the chargeback or return rate increases by more than 15% compared to the previous month, or is approaching the warning line at the payment gateway (usually 1%), you must immediately halt analysis instead of blindly pushing for higher volumes.

• Does the data analysis of the pain points (risk categories/regions) show that the dispute rate is unusually high for a particular high-value category (such as electronics or luxury clothing) or for orders shipped to a particular country? This is often a sign of targeted fraud.

• Immune System (Risk Control Strategy): Are the risk control rules you set for Black Friday still applicable to your current daily orders? Outdated strict rules will mistakenly kill normal orders, while overly lenient rules are like “opening the door to thieves.”

The real sprint: ensuring every penny of revenue is “safely pocketed”.

The year-end sales push is essentially an art of balancing risk and return. The real winners are no longer those who overextend themselves on revenue figures, but those who can safely and completely convert the largest proportion of sales revenue into reported profits.

At Wintranx, we are committed to being the silent and reliable “security foundation” for your cross-border business.